Post election analysis are akin to Monday morning quarterbacking, but the opportunity to debrief and objectively look at what were strengths and weaknesses of certain political campaigns in Colorado’s 2010 Republican Primary Election is worthwhile. The majority of the candidates who won were novices to the grand political arena, backed largely by the right-wing movement known collectively as the “Tea Party,” a term conjuring thoughts of the Boston Tea Party of 1773, in which some 342 chest of East India Co. tea were destroyed by protesters, dressed as Mohawk Indians, who were against a series of taxes imposed on the colonists by Great Britain, including a tax on tea.
The current Tea Party movement is against the entire Washington establishment, regardless of political party, though ideologically it is more aligned with the Libertarian Party, than with the Republican Party. The mantra of “change” started during the 2008 US Presidential Election has sparked a revolutionary style movement from the grass-roots level and the message seems to be clear: No more individuals who are part of the establishment, no more career politicians, no more candidates with experience in the public sector, along with favouring fewer taxes, a balanced budget, and less government intrusion into the daily lives of citizens. Followers of the movement tend to be highly nationalistic and nostalgic about the good old days. Former 2008 GOP Presidential nominee and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is considered the uniting figure-head of the Tea Party movement.
So what happened in Colorado in August 2010? An election change, while subtle had a major impact on campaign strategy. This election was completely mail-ballot, which meant a campaign had to adjust political marketing tactics accordingly. Voters also tended to vote in three waves (early, middle and near election day), a candidate like Ray Scott managed to capitalize on these voting waves by sending out three mail pieces, one was a get to you letter, the next was a positive/negative comparison with his opponent, Bob Hislop, and the third was a Political Action Committee (PAC) funded mail piece which aggressively attacked Hislop. These mail pieces were very effective and managed to give voters a sense of who he is/was, on his terms, and put his name in front of the voters at the same time they had their ballots.
Bob Hislop on the other had had three times the campaign budget of Scott, but took an entirely different strategy. Hislop invested in radio and television ads and later online and in-print advertising. While effective to raise his name ID in the target market that listens to certain radio stations, watches certain TV programming, or reads certain newspapers, but failed to consider the entire voter-universe, that being all registered voters in Colorado House District 54. This is the same reason why Doug Atchley defeated Vern McCracken for Delta County Commission, district one. Atchley out-raised and out-spent McCracken, but Atchley invested in four direct mail-pieces: one to the county assembly delegates, another inviting folks for a regional meet & greet / coffee, a third the day the ballots were received, and a fourth hitting the middle wave of voters. Vern opted to walk precincts, use robo calls, and radio ads, rather than sending a single direct mail piece. Atchley won with nearly 70% of the vote. This is also the reason why Greenwood Village Mayor, Nancy Sharpe, defeated former 4-term Colorado House Representative Lorry Clapp for Arapahoe County Commissioner. Sharpe had the good fortune of having Clapp’s campaign manager caught on video-tape by the police having her young son steal signs and then bringing them back to her car. Clapp picked up a bizarre sympathy gain on Election Day, which is worthy to note.
Jane Norton, a former Lieutenant Governor of Colorado, lost to Ken Buck, the Weld County District Attorney. Norton became blamed as being part of the establishment, while Buck early on touted himself as the Tea Party candidate. Both Norton and Buck used direct mail pieces, but while Jane’s were clever, Buck’s were hard hitting, liking Norton to tax hikes, failed policies, and wasteful spending. These mail pieces, radio ads, TV ads, online ads, and print ads started early and continued to build. Norton first began attacking US Senator Michael Bennet, whom she assumed she would be facing in November. After State Senator Josh Penry dropped out of the governor’s race, Norton tapped Penry to be her campaign manager, a move which stunned many regional political junkies. The change in strategy occurred too late, the damage was sticking, because the attacks had been used long enough and hard enough that by Election Day, many voters believed the fallacies about Norton to be true. Buck made two off-the-wall comments in the late part of the election, which Norton capitalized on to gain lost ground, but unfortunately there wasn’t enough time in the game to score the needed percentage points in order to squeak out a victory which had been winnable back in January.
Dan Maes, an Evergreen, Colorado businessman, defeated former six term Colorado congressman, Scott McInnis by one percentage point. Maes, who claimed the title of Tea Party favourite was never suppose to win, however McInnis was attacked relentlessly by the media, who alleged he plagiarized multiple documents, including portions of a series of 26 papers he wrote on water policy, a line in a Washington Post editorial and a sentence in a Congressional House speech. Insiders claim the attack was leaked to the media by Maes’ camp and given the Denver media’s affinity towards their mayor, John Hickenlooper (who is the Democrat running for governor), it is no surprise they ran with it. Maes was fined $34,000 for illegal transfer of campaign monies, something which would be called boarder-line money laundering in the business world, but received a plea down $17,500 fine, which is still one of the largest rendered in Colorado history. McInnis defeated himself through the handling of the plagiarism scandal, as he went into hiding, then continued to make it worse for himself by placing the blame on an 82 year old, whom he had hired to do research for the water papers, not to mention failure to communicate with those involved to nip the story, before it could snowball. Maes is being preasured to leave the race by former Colorado congressman Tom Tancredo, who is running for governor on the American Constitutional Party ticket and is polling at a higher level than Maes. Top donors and party officials would also like to see Maes replaced with a much more electable candidate like Josh Penry, Mark Hillman, or the founder of ReMax, though serious talk cannot begin until Maes resigns from running, a move he said he will not take.
The victories indicate the Tea Party has clout in the Republican Party and that certain party members want to see completely new faces in politics. While Tea Party candidates were on the whole, terrible fundraisers, they were tremendously helped by PACs and 527s which funnelled millions of dollars into defeating opponents of the Tea Party. The real test will be in November 2010, when the general voting population will be asked to evaluate a Tea Party candidate v. a Democrat one.
The current Tea Party movement is against the entire Washington establishment, regardless of political party, though ideologically it is more aligned with the Libertarian Party, than with the Republican Party. The mantra of “change” started during the 2008 US Presidential Election has sparked a revolutionary style movement from the grass-roots level and the message seems to be clear: No more individuals who are part of the establishment, no more career politicians, no more candidates with experience in the public sector, along with favouring fewer taxes, a balanced budget, and less government intrusion into the daily lives of citizens. Followers of the movement tend to be highly nationalistic and nostalgic about the good old days. Former 2008 GOP Presidential nominee and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is considered the uniting figure-head of the Tea Party movement.
So what happened in Colorado in August 2010? An election change, while subtle had a major impact on campaign strategy. This election was completely mail-ballot, which meant a campaign had to adjust political marketing tactics accordingly. Voters also tended to vote in three waves (early, middle and near election day), a candidate like Ray Scott managed to capitalize on these voting waves by sending out three mail pieces, one was a get to you letter, the next was a positive/negative comparison with his opponent, Bob Hislop, and the third was a Political Action Committee (PAC) funded mail piece which aggressively attacked Hislop. These mail pieces were very effective and managed to give voters a sense of who he is/was, on his terms, and put his name in front of the voters at the same time they had their ballots.
Bob Hislop on the other had had three times the campaign budget of Scott, but took an entirely different strategy. Hislop invested in radio and television ads and later online and in-print advertising. While effective to raise his name ID in the target market that listens to certain radio stations, watches certain TV programming, or reads certain newspapers, but failed to consider the entire voter-universe, that being all registered voters in Colorado House District 54. This is the same reason why Doug Atchley defeated Vern McCracken for Delta County Commission, district one. Atchley out-raised and out-spent McCracken, but Atchley invested in four direct mail-pieces: one to the county assembly delegates, another inviting folks for a regional meet & greet / coffee, a third the day the ballots were received, and a fourth hitting the middle wave of voters. Vern opted to walk precincts, use robo calls, and radio ads, rather than sending a single direct mail piece. Atchley won with nearly 70% of the vote. This is also the reason why Greenwood Village Mayor, Nancy Sharpe, defeated former 4-term Colorado House Representative Lorry Clapp for Arapahoe County Commissioner. Sharpe had the good fortune of having Clapp’s campaign manager caught on video-tape by the police having her young son steal signs and then bringing them back to her car. Clapp picked up a bizarre sympathy gain on Election Day, which is worthy to note.
Jane Norton, a former Lieutenant Governor of Colorado, lost to Ken Buck, the Weld County District Attorney. Norton became blamed as being part of the establishment, while Buck early on touted himself as the Tea Party candidate. Both Norton and Buck used direct mail pieces, but while Jane’s were clever, Buck’s were hard hitting, liking Norton to tax hikes, failed policies, and wasteful spending. These mail pieces, radio ads, TV ads, online ads, and print ads started early and continued to build. Norton first began attacking US Senator Michael Bennet, whom she assumed she would be facing in November. After State Senator Josh Penry dropped out of the governor’s race, Norton tapped Penry to be her campaign manager, a move which stunned many regional political junkies. The change in strategy occurred too late, the damage was sticking, because the attacks had been used long enough and hard enough that by Election Day, many voters believed the fallacies about Norton to be true. Buck made two off-the-wall comments in the late part of the election, which Norton capitalized on to gain lost ground, but unfortunately there wasn’t enough time in the game to score the needed percentage points in order to squeak out a victory which had been winnable back in January.
Dan Maes, an Evergreen, Colorado businessman, defeated former six term Colorado congressman, Scott McInnis by one percentage point. Maes, who claimed the title of Tea Party favourite was never suppose to win, however McInnis was attacked relentlessly by the media, who alleged he plagiarized multiple documents, including portions of a series of 26 papers he wrote on water policy, a line in a Washington Post editorial and a sentence in a Congressional House speech. Insiders claim the attack was leaked to the media by Maes’ camp and given the Denver media’s affinity towards their mayor, John Hickenlooper (who is the Democrat running for governor), it is no surprise they ran with it. Maes was fined $34,000 for illegal transfer of campaign monies, something which would be called boarder-line money laundering in the business world, but received a plea down $17,500 fine, which is still one of the largest rendered in Colorado history. McInnis defeated himself through the handling of the plagiarism scandal, as he went into hiding, then continued to make it worse for himself by placing the blame on an 82 year old, whom he had hired to do research for the water papers, not to mention failure to communicate with those involved to nip the story, before it could snowball. Maes is being preasured to leave the race by former Colorado congressman Tom Tancredo, who is running for governor on the American Constitutional Party ticket and is polling at a higher level than Maes. Top donors and party officials would also like to see Maes replaced with a much more electable candidate like Josh Penry, Mark Hillman, or the founder of ReMax, though serious talk cannot begin until Maes resigns from running, a move he said he will not take.
The victories indicate the Tea Party has clout in the Republican Party and that certain party members want to see completely new faces in politics. While Tea Party candidates were on the whole, terrible fundraisers, they were tremendously helped by PACs and 527s which funnelled millions of dollars into defeating opponents of the Tea Party. The real test will be in November 2010, when the general voting population will be asked to evaluate a Tea Party candidate v. a Democrat one.
