09 November 2010

India, Pakistan & American foreign intrests

At times I become frustrated by American foreign policy, as it is like a violinist who picks up the interment with his right hand, but plays with his left. During the Cold War, Pakistan was a loyal allied of the United States, though in the 21st Century we have elected to ease friendship ties in support of Pakistan’s arch rival, India. Securing more trade with India, a nation previously supported by the Soviet Union and on the verge of becoming one of the most populous nations on Earth, is brilliant in terms of opening more markets and advancing American commercial interests. The frustration comes from the US not doing more to strengthen security efforts with Pakistan. The Surge, which occurred back in July saw a massive influx of NATO military forces, but led to a tsunami of anti-western dissidents fleeing into the mountainous regions of Pakistan. The evacuation of Afghanistan by the majority of al-Qaeda and the Taliban to Pakistan has led to a de-stabilization in parts of that nation.

Peshawar, Pakistan is the home of one of my good friends. I was with her the day she learned her aunt had been killed by a suicide-bomb in one of the market places. Her brother-in-law is a professor of terrorism studies at the university and I learned a lot from them about life on the ground as it were. Abandonment in Pakistan and a focus solely on Indian trade and economic policy is a risky move for Pakistan. From a US perspective, the shift in support and trade advantages to counter that of China and secure vast markets for goods, services, labour and capital did not come soon enough. Pakistan is quite insignificant in an economic sphere of influence. Those who are strong Indian supporters argue that Pakistan is one of the most corrupt States in the world and that constantly having military leaders is an indication of the weakness of the democracy. These assertions whether true or not are probably closer to fact, than fiction.

What can be done about Pakistan? The US has a reputation for failing to think about unintended consequences and I am proposing using history as a means for not repeating cyclical errors. Pakistan is ripe for further destabilization and angering the population by using statements, such as “militant”, which are tantamount to asserting the Pakistani State is recklessly out of control and in the realm of what a previous American president would have called “evil”. Pakistani officials realized that President Obama had to talk tough in order to win the support of India and secure trade advantages in the Far East. Proposing a UN Security Council permanent seat for India is a step towards diluting the voting power of China and Russia along with France and the United Kingdom on some issues. Pakistan is too small a political power to ever be seriously considered for an expansion seat. If any American foreign policy team can persuade the UNGA and the UNSC to amend the charter to add India to the ranks of the permanent five, then it will be President Obama and Secretary of State Clinton, both of whom the world seems to view in more divine terms, as opposed to political actors on a world stage.

Considering history, the US always abandons good ideas long before the relevance becomes empirical. The US should begin transfer funding to Pakistan’s educational system to ensure al-Qaeda and the Taliban do not brainwash weakening allies into becoming our enemies. NATO and Pakistan should work on creating a joint security plan for alleviating the major security risks. In light of changing policies, the UK and US should retract proposed plans to restrict Pakistanis travelling to their respective sovereignties. Continuing a culture exchange to break down looming societal barriers will serve the west well in years to come.

The weaknesses of my argument concern the lack of political will, a shift in policy from Pakistani based to Indian based, and being a bit idealistic in proposing aiding Pakistan’s educational system and calling for a NATO security arrangement.

Indian trade security and the potential for new markets for goods, services, labour and capital is a major advantage in the east, especially as China is beginning to flex its economic muscle. Fear of China moving off of the dollar as it’s hedging currency could further devalue the US dollar. India is not without its flaws, as it has a rich heritage of class divide, corruption, domestic crime, and governmental and omissions human rights abuse. Pakistan is a nation in peril, as it went from a relatively save country at the beginning of the War in Afghanistan to being a very dangerous State today. Strong support for Pakistan’s neighbour and calling the state “militant”, and not making a distinction between radical Islam and the Religion of Islam are good methods for losing the allegiance of a now questioning Pakistani society. The situation is summed up best by saying, “That's Maciavelli”.

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