Gun deaths told by the numbers*

The thesis for this OpEd is “hold your horses,” gun crime is a far more complex beast than most want to recognise.

From Colorado Springs to San Bernardino mass shootings have continued to make headlines and “memes” floating around social media.

Pundits and politicians have given sound bite solutions to America’s homicide and mass-shooting problems, yet the numbers reveal a far more complex universe, worthy of public analysis.

The latest reportable numbers reveal:

• 21,175 suicides by firearms[1];
•  8,438 murders by firearms[2];
• 1,107 people killed by police using firearms[3];
• 606 unintentional/accidental deaths by firearms[4];
• 31,326 total deaths in the United States during a recent year.[5]

As horrifying as these numbers appear, the U.S.'s murder rate has been declining from a high watermark of nearly 10 out of 100,000 in 1991 to less than 4.5 in 2013.[6] Comparatively speaking, researchers estimate that 18.5 mothers died for every 100,000 births in the U.S.[7]

The total number of suicides by all means was 41,149.[8] Since 2005 Americans taking their own lives has been on the rise, with 12.6 out of 100,000 falling victim to suicide.[9]

The rate of homicides involving a firearm decreased by 49% between 1992 and 2011,[10] though firearms remain the instrument of choice for roughly 67% of murders, the other 43% accomplished their lethal act with some other ‘tool’.[11]

Unintentional or accidental deaths caused by firearms, seems the easiest for society to reduce by pushing more gun safety education. Unfortunately Americans as a whole are not the most safety prone. The Center for Disease Control reports that 130,557 Americans died in 2013 as a result of accidents or unintentional injuries.[12]

Many American’s greatest fear is being the victim of a deranged perpetrator’s shooting rampage, yet the Department of Justice reports that 95% of all homicides in the U.S. involve only one victim.[13] This means 0.23 out of 100,000 will be victims of a mass murder, which is a fairly low rate in direct proportion to the media coverage.

The reality is the victim will more likely than not know their murderer. With certain exceptions, homicide is not committed by an unknown person to the victim: 25.5% of male victims and 11.9% of female victims were killed by complete strangers. Compared with 46.2% of male victims were killed by a friend or colleague, and 41.5% of female victims were killed by an intimate partner.[14]

Is homicide a male problem? The latest trends show: 68% of all homicides had a male offender and a male victim. Shockingly, 98% of all mass shootings were committed by males[15]; 94% of all gang related murders were male victims; 90% of drug related murders were male victims; and 79% of felony murders involved a male victim.[16]

In only 21% of homicides was there a male offender and female victim; 9% involved a female offender and male victim; and lastly just 2% of all homicides involved a female as both the perpetrator and victim.[17]

A mass shooting is defined as four or more people shot in one event, whereas a “murder spree” or “mass murder” is when more than one person was killed during the same occurrence.[18] Legally speaking, these distinctions are used as aggravating factors to increase the severity of the penalty.

According to the shootingtracker.com, mass shootings have declined from 363 in 2013 to just over 300 for the current year.[19]

One commonly cited precedent to follow is that of Australia. Following the 1996 school shooting on the Island of Tasmania, the government seized approximately 650,000 firearms. While suicides by firearms declined significantly, homicides by guns has been a hard statistic to determine since there were so few homicides in Australia before the ban.[20]

The lesson from down under is that a solution that only focuses on the tool and not on culture, education, regional values, crime, or economic triggers misses the big picture.

What is the take-away? Society must decide if attacking the ‘tool’ used or addressing the underlying causes is more important. Such underlying causes include: mental health (and legislative cuts to funding), long-term male joblessness (which leads to crime), and gang and drug related activities (which increase murders). There are no simple solutions, only intelligent choices.

Matt Soper is a resident of Delta County and alumnus of Colorado Mesa University, holding law degrees from The University of Edinburgh and the University of New Hampshire. Contact the author at matt.soper@alumni.law.unh.edu.

*M Soper, "Gun deaths told by the numbers." Commentary. The Daily Sentinel, Grand Junction, Colo. 6 December 2015, p. 7B.

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[1] “Suicide & Self-Inflicted Injury.” Center for Disease Control. U.S. Department of Health & Human Services, 2015. Web, . 6 October 2015.

[2] “Murder 2013.” Uniform Crime Reports. U.S. Department of Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation, 2015. Web, < https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2013/crime-in-the-u.s.-2013/tables/table-20/table_20_murder_by_state_types_of_weapons_2013.xls>. 6 October 2015.

[3] “2014 Data.” Killed by Police. Killed by Police, 2015. Web, . 6 October 2015.

[4] WISQARS Injury Mortality Reports, 1999-2010, supra note 1.

[5] Estimated total number of deaths for 2014 involving firearms. See FBI crime reports, CDC database, & the website killedbypolice.net. 1 December 2015.

[6] “Murder Rate 1970-2011.” Murder Rates. Death Penalty Info, 2015. Web, < http://www.deathpenaltyinfo.org/murder-rates-nationally-and-state>. 6 October 2015;  “Crime in the U.S. 2013.” Uniform Crime Reports. U.S. Department of Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation, 2015. Web, < https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2013/crime-in-the-u.s.-2013/violent-crime/murder-topic-page/murdermain_final>. 6 October 2015; also see: “The Nation’s two measures of homicide.” DOJ. Web, . 6 October 2015.

[7] “Maternal deaths in childbirth rise in the U.S.” The Washington Post.

[8] Suicide & Self-Inflicted Injury. Op. cite.

[9] “Facts & Figures.” American Foundation for Suicide Prevention. American Foundation for Suicide Prevention, 2015. Web, . 6 October 2015.

[10] “Homicide in the US known to law enforcement.” Bureau of Justice Statistics. U.S. Department of Justice. Web, . 6 October 2015.

[11] “Murder 2013.” Uniform Crime Reports. FBI, 2015. Web. 6 October 2015.

[12] “Mortality: accidents & unintentional injuries.” Center for Disease Control. U.S. Department of Health & Human Services, 2015. Web, . 6 October 2015.

[13] “Homicide in the US known to law enforcement.” Bureau of Justice Statistics. Web. 6 October 2015.

[14] “Homicide Trends in the United States, 1980-2010.” Bureau of Justice Statistics. U.S. Department of Justice. Web, . 6 October 2015.

[15] “Why Mass Killers Are Always Male.” Time. Web, . 6 October 2015.

[16] Homicide trends. Op. cite.

[17] Homicide trends. Op. cite.

[18] “2014 Raw Data.” Mass Shooting Tracker. Shooting Tracker, 2015. Web, . 6 October 2015.

[19] “2013-2015 Raw Data,” Mass Shooting Tracker, Shooting Tracker, 2015. Web. 2 December 2015.

[20] Ehrenfreund, Max. “What liberal don’t want to admit about gun control,” Wonkblog. The Washington Post 9 October 2015. Web. < https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/10/02/what-liberals-dont-want-to-admit-about-gun-control/> 2 December 2015.