Politics is a numbers game. Focus on the number of votes needed to win and channel campaign resources into ensuring those people vote and vote for you. Many candidates waist too much time just on targeting a large audience, when in reality they have no clue what or who they are targeting. Regarding HD 54, almost 1/3rd (this might not be accurate now) of the votes are within Delta County, not a lot, but a block of votes which are definitely not worth ignoring. Will Delta County Republican vote in a block? Maybe, maybe not, however getting along with the different factions and not ignoring invitations when they come your way is a major step in ensuring you can capture a large group of votes.
The key is avoiding a primary by winning at the assembly. Fundraising is a tough challenge and will occupy a lot of time. Invest up front and back fill later, as you will need the funds on hand for courting the delegates and demonstrating you are prepared for November (obviously Aug., but the image should be that you are a Nov. candidate).
I have been the campaign manager for two successful campaigns and in these I quickly moved my candidates into a position where all the messaging was succinct and constantly repeated. I also looked at the demographics we needed to target to win. I wanted to win by at least 60%. In both races, which began as 4 way contests, I managed to get more than 60% of the vote for each, because we looked at the voter who voted in the last five elections and ensured that they voted for us. The other side had no clue what hit them. I also had a negative attack campaign drafted, but only had to bring out that contingency once. Opposition research helps – everyone has some which can be spun into sounding bad. Though I abide by the rules that if my opponent doesn’t do negative, then I don’t go negative. Much of what I learned came from lost campaigns - Mark Hillman, Wil Armstrong, and David Kerber.
Many candidates make the mistake of venturing off message or else being so focused on the message that they sound like a robot – the middle route is best, same message, different styles of presentation. The same message was also kept constant on advertising - a simple business marketing scheme. Invest in a good designer who can be ready to draft new ads at the last minute.
Look like you hold the office while running for the office is also a good mindset to have – present yourself as the knowledgeable one, not as the guy who is running because they hate big government and have been a faithful Republican for years. One last bit of advice – ask people for their vote. People like to have you ask and they also like it when the candidate remembers their name.
